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MOO Is On Sale
Written by Brad Zigler   
October 12, 2009 12:53 pm EDT
Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.5%*

Too bad the stock market doesn't operate like a grocery store. Grocers regularly run ads touting lower prices to draw customers into their stores. Market makers advertise "specials" too, but unfortunately, a many investors pass up these stocks or funds when they go "on sale."

There's just such a bargain to be had with the Market Vectors Agribusiness Fund (NYSE Arca: MOO) now. Well, to be exact, the bargain's in the options market for the exchange-traded fund. Option premiums are priced now at some of their lowest levels over the past 500 days.

By "priced," I don't mean in terms of dollars but, rather, implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the option seller's assumption of the underlying stock's price variance over the life of the option.

Right now, with MOO trading just south of the $40 level, market makers are setting call prices with very long odds on upside moves. Just how long are those odds? Look back at the steep plunge MOO shares took in the summer of 2008. After bottoming in fall, the ETFs retraced about a quarter of the decline before leveling out. Market makers figure there's only a 2.2% chance the fund shares can extend that retracement to the $48-$49 level by late November.

 

Market Vectors Agribusiness Fund (MOO)

MK Vector Agribs

 

Largely, that's due to MOO's dawdling between $36 and $40 since August. Dawdling doesn't go on forever, though.

November $40 calls were offered for only $1.40 per share this morning. These calls break even at expiry on Nov. 20 at only $41.40. Paying 3 1/2 cents a day for a lease on MOO seems like one of the market's current best buys. You don't even need a coupon.

 

*Note: The monetary inflation rate is calculated daily and represents the change in our proprietary index from this date one year ago. We update long-term inflation in real time as well. Since 1999, the compound annual growth rate in our index is 5.2%.



 

More on this topic (What's this?)
Marc Faber: Massive Inflation and then War
Dividends Stocks versus Fixed Income
Inflation’s Coming! Hide Here…
Read more on Inflation, Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO), Implied volatility at Wikinvest
 
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Comments (4)

 Monday, 12 October 2009 18:42 EST - Posted by Scott Ball

 
I am trying to find out how many times in the last 10 year Crude Oil Contango took place and for how long. I'm also interested in if you think it will be more frequent in the next 10 years.

 Monday, 12 October 2009 20:09 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
Scott -

Crude's slipped into contango trends four times in the past decade: 1999 started in contango which lasted 'til April 2001; contango resumed in September 2001 and held sway through March 2002; the market next moved to contango in January 2005 through July 2007; the present contango began in June 2008.

Contango is more likely when demand slackens in relation to available (above-ground) supplies.

If you believe economic conditions will continue to dampen consumption, bet on contango. Otherwise, bank on the longer-term trend of modest backwardation to be the norm.

 Monday, 12 October 2009 21:19 EST - Posted by Scott Ball

 
Brad - Thank You for your quick response. GDP numbers were 3% + during the time periods mentioned. I am trying to fiqure this out. Do you have an explanation?

Thanks again! Scott

 Monday, 12 October 2009 22:09 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
Scott-

Can't say anything about your GDP number. I'd watch domestic inventories as a more relaible indicator of the futures term curve. Rising inventories are generally associated with contango; chronic drawdowns tend to beget backwardation.



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